IDEA del mese: Riduciamo il peso del mercato azionario e shortiamo la parte obbligazionaria…
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In questo report riduciamo il peso dell’azionario dal 40% al 30% ,dopo la forte performance che recentemente ha avuto questo mercato, che ha beneficiato di un partenza forte nei dati del terzo trimestre e nelle aspettative di quantitative easing. Il nostro portfolio ha avuto una performance YTD del 7,5% e vogliamo consolidare questa performance nell’affrontare l’ultima parte dell’anno.
D’altro canto rimaniamo positivi sulle prospettive del mercato azionario nel lungo periodo e questo viene confermato dal mantenimento della nostra esposizione su questo mercato al 30%:
Incrementiamo inoltre la nostra posizione sullo “Short IBOXX Euro Sovereigns Eurozone TR Index” dal 10% al 20%. I livelli dei tassi di interesse sono vicini al loro livello record piu’ basso . I nostri economisti si aspettano che i livelli dei tassi d’interesse si normalizzino gradatamente nei prossimi anni e questa normalizzazione potrebbe essere supportata dall’alto livello di debito dei paesi, dal miglioramento della crescita economica o dal crescente trend dell’inflazione. I bassi livelli dei tassi d’interesse potrebbero anche portare all’uscita di flussi di capitale dalle asset classes a un certo punto e cio’ potrebbe supportare il trend di normalizzazione. Inoltre, le nostre analisi rimangono negative sul mercato del Fixed income.
Acquistiamo infine i settori Banche e Utilities ognuno con un peso del 5% nel nostro portafoglio. Entrambi i settori si sono poco valorizzati rispetto al rally del mercato azionario degli ultimi dodici mesi. Riduciamo dal 20% al 10% il peso sia dell’indice Dax , sia dell’indice Eurostoxx Select Dividend 30.
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Fonte: ETFWorld – ETF : Tratto da Index Trading Ideas and Flows di Deutsche Bank – 28 ottobre 2010
