Bank of England: il Monetary Policy Committee lascia invariati i tassi d’interesse allo 0,5%

“The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee kept interest rates on hold at the record low of 0.5%, and decided not to change the size of its Asset Purchase Programme, also known as quantitative easing.

“Macroeconomic data has generally been stronger than expected in recent weeks. Two separate private business surveys suggest the manufacturing sector is growing at its fastest rate for around 16 years, as private sector employment continues to recover. Exporters are also beginning to take advantage of the lower levels of Sterling which is coinciding with the recovery in global trade. In addition, we see inflation continuing to disappoint – likely to remain over 3% for all of 2011. We are forecasting the economy to withstand the fiscal squeeze and to continue to grow throughout 2011 and 2012 and as a result, we do not persistently see enough downside risks for the Bank of England to restart quantitative easing.

“However, stagnant house prices as highlighted by this morning’s Halifax data (-0.7% 3 months Y/Y), continued weakness in lending data, and the coming tax rises are likely to keep the MPC in wait and see mode for most of next year. Though if our forecast is correct, growth continues to be stronger than expected, and inflation continues to disappoint, we expect to see interest rates rise before the end of 2011, and possibly reaching 2% by 2012.”

The views and opinions contained herein are those of Laura Luo, Fund Manager, Asian ex Japan Equities, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds.
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